Republicans Are Splitting Over Israel. Will Democrats Take Advantage?

In a presidential primary election, a significant number of Republican voters — 44 percent — said they would vote for a Republican candidate who supports reducing the flow of U.S. taxpayer-funded weapons to Israel, according to a new poll released Tuesday by the Institute for Middle East Understanding Policy Project and conducted by YouGov.

The findings show it’s not just left-leaning voters who now object to Israel’s war on Gaza — a growing share of Republicans are souring on the U.S. government’s unconditional support of Israel as well. That creates an opportunity for Democrats who want to flip Republican seats in upcoming elections, said Margaret DeReus, executive director of the IMEU Policy Project.

“Democratic leadership has so far refused to acknowledge Israel’s growing unpopularity with voters and offer voters a real alternative, the same disastrous mistake they made in 2024,” DeReus said. “If Democratic leadership can summon the political will to call for an end of weapons to Israel so those billions can be reinvested in the programs Americans need, our polling finds it won’t just boost support with the Democratic base — it will persuade Republican voters to cross over as well.”

It depends in part on which Republicans a Democratic candidate wants to court. Similar to trends seen among Democratic voters about a decade ago, the Republican opposition contains a notable age gap: Among Republicans ages 18 to 44, the new IMEU poll said, support for a candidate who favors reducing arms transfers to Israel jumps to a majority, 51 percent.

The poll was taken from a sample of 1,287 self-identified Republicans who YouGov surveyed online in November. With a 3 percent margin of error, the results are consistent with findings from an August Quinnipiac University poll that found more than a third of Republicans oppose sending more military aid to Israel, and an October Pew Research Center poll finding that as many 41 percent of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Israel, a jump from 27 percent only three years ago. A Gallup poll in July showed that a majority of all Americans — 54 percent — disapprove of Israel’s military actions in Gaza, a new high in dissatisfaction.

As the 2026 congressional primaries draw near, the Democratic Party is continuing to grapple with how to respond to mounting pressure to support Palestine among its voter base. Some Democratic candidates have sworn off support from conservative pro-Israel groups such as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee after previously receiving funding, and are committing to a House bill that would block offensive weapons transfers to Israel; others remain committed to the pro-Israel cause.

Asked if they would rather support a Republican or Democratic candidate running on identical pro-Israel messages — that Israel should “do whatever its leaders say is necessary to defend itself” and that “the United States should always be there to provide weapons and logistical support to Israel when its leaders ask” — only 4 percent of the polled Republicans said they would vote for the Democrat.

But asked to pick between the pro-Israel Republican or a Democratic candidate whose priority is to “focus on Americans first, by ensuring our tax dollars are used to bring down prices here instead of paying for weapons and support for wealthy nations like Israel,” 17 percent of Republicans flipped left and said they would rather vote for a Democrat critical of Israel.

DeReus interpreted the results as indicative of frustration with President Donald Trump.

“Americans of all backgrounds are confounded that President Trump always finds billions of dollars to fund Israel’s attacks on Palestinians, while saying there’s not enough money to fund affordable healthcare for Americans,” she said.

The IMEU poll also found that among Republican voters, more than a third said they would rather support a Republican primary congressional candidate who rejected money from AIPAC, compared to 19 percent support for a candidate who accepts AIPAC donations.

When asked specifically about U.S.-funded weapons deals with Israel, Republican voters signaled significant disapproval. The arms transfers between the two countries operate within a Memorandum of Understanding signed in 2016 by then-President Barack Obama that expires in 2028. Last month, Axios reported that Israel is seeking a new 20-year MOU with the Trump administration, committing about $4 billion to Israel each year. The proposal reportedly asks for a reduction in the amount of money used for direct military aid with plans to instead spend such money on defense-related research, a possible concession to growing frustrations with Israel among Trump’s base, especially as the economy worsens.

The IMEU poll confirms some of that frustration, showing that 42 percent of Republican voters want the current U.S.–Israel military MOU to lapse in 2028 rather than renewing another 10-year agreement. Disapproval for the 20-year agreement slightly increases to 43 percent. A majority of Republicans below the age of 44 opposed a 10- or 20-year agreement, at 53 percent and 51 percent, respectively.

Amid Israel’s war on Gaza, former President Joe Biden approved a 2024 emergency bill sending $14.1 billion in military aid to Israel, in addition to the ongoing MOU. A new congressional defense bill released last week, which asks for a record $901 billion, also includes carveouts for the U.S. to fill any of Israel’s gaps in military aid created by arms embargoes by other nations, such as Spain, Italy, and Japan, according to a Zeteo report.

Some on the left who support Palestinian human rights are beginning to capitalize on their overlap with conservatives — like Code Pink founder Medea Benjamin, who last week met with far-right Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., who is resigning in January and has been seen as an avatar for growing dissatisfaction toward U.S. support for Israel among Trump’s supporters.

That’s not to say right-wing criticism of pro-Israel spending is necessarily born out of concern for Palestinian people. The strain of conservatism that gave rise to Greene and other “America first” Republicans relies on a nationalist logic that privileges U.S. citizens above all other people, and right-wing criticism of Israel often peddles in antisemitic tropes. The influential right-wing pundit Tucker Carlson has criticized U.S. support for Israel’s genocide in Gaza — and recently drew criticism for platforming Nick Fuentes, a white nationalist who often spews antisemitic beliefs.

Brett Cooper, another popular conservative personality and regular Fox News contributor, attempted to untangle this concern in a recent interview on NPR. When host Steve Inskeep asked Cooper whether she agreed with Fuentes’s peddling of an antisemitic idea that the U.S. is run by “Jewish gangsters,” Cooper, 24, said she rejected Fuentes’s antisemitic claim and instead insisted her generation’s concern with Israel had more to do with spending priorities in a struggling U.S. economy.

“Young people’s biggest concern right now, both sides of the aisle, is the economy — we are concerned about being able to buy homes, we are concerned about affordability,” Cooper said. “And so when we see the news, when we see how much money is being sent overseas, to Ukraine, to Israel … my generation is concerned, we are upset.”