Analysis: the timing of oil exploration near the Amazon is no coincidence

The licence support for Petrobras to drill successful the Amazon estuary, granted by Ibama connected Monday, October 20^th, astir 20 days earlier the COP30 successful Belém is not accidental.

The determination timing, which authorizes lipid exploration 160km from the enactment and 500km from the world's largest estuary, has governmental reasons that widen beyond the unit exerted by President Lula, immoderate ministers, and Petrobras itself regarding the biology acme passim 2025.

Two caller episodes assistance to recognize wherefore the Brazilian authorities has chosen this infinitesimal to pb a task which powerfully contrasts its sermon of clime leadership: erstwhile Minister Marina Silva defended just modulation successful Brasília’s pre-COP a week ago, and the lack of a factual program that details however to modulation from a dependency connected fossil fuels properly.

The memo from Brasília

During the past mentation brushwood for COP30, which took spot betwixt the 13th and 14th of October, Marina Silva presented the Brazilian connection for an energetic modulation based connected societal and climatic justice.

On the occasion, the curate remembered COP28, successful Dubai, which projected for the archetypal clip the phasing retired of fossil fuels. Furthermore, she further defended the extremity of ineffective subsidies for this vigor source.

“The determination represents a calling to destruct ineffective subsidies to fossil fuels progressively. Today, these subsidies alteration from 1,5 to 7 trillion dollars, depending connected methodology”, affirmed the curate during the opening of the plenary league connected phasing out, a word utilized to notation to the modulation from fossil fuels to other, cleaner vigor sources.

The absorption of the representatives of lipid states, peculiarly from Saudi Arabia, was contiguous and harsh.

The country, the 2nd largest lipid shaper successful the satellite and person of the Arab States group, criticized the attack to the taxable and declared that the Global Balance doesn’t conscionable interest this contented but is simply a “menu” that shouldn’t azygous retired oregon discriminate against immoderate azygous technology.

Despite this divergence, sources affirmed that, generally, these countries showed willingness to negotiate, which was seen arsenic a bully motion for COP30.

However, by utilizing strategical exertion to representation the main delicate points, the Environmental Conference Board has noticed that debates astir fossil fuels so stood retired arsenic immoderate of the astir delicate.

Behind the scenes, seasoned diplomats reported successful backstage conversations with EXAME that absorption raised immoderate alarms among negotiators.

Without demonstrating that Brazil is besides reliant connected lipid resources, the enactment of COP30 would beryllium astatine hazard of being isolated successful the bloc of shaper nations.

“The connection was clear: determination is nary starring a planetary vigor modulation without recognizing that it volition beryllium agelong and that it involves oil”, revealed an perceiver who has accompanied the clime negotiations for implicit a decade.

“Allowing drilling connected the Equatorial Margin is, also, a connection that Brazil is not successful a greenish utopia, but it is, rather, progressive successful vigor geopolitics”, they completed.

Behind the scenes: “The timing is awful, but calculated”

In diplomatic and firm behind-the-scenes circles, the mentation is unanimous: the infinitesimal is unspeakable from an representation perspective, but calculations were made with authorities successful mind.

“The determination was made present because, paradoxically, it would beryllium adjacent worse should it hap aft the COP. It would beryllium similar admitting that Brazil hid its intentions during the conference. At least, this way, the authorities tin accidental we were transparent”, pondered a diplomat who asked for anonymity for not being allowed to talk connected this taxable publicly.

Another seasoned COP perceiver complements: “The authorities is playing a hard game. If they don’t let drilling, they suffer support, look unit from Petrobras, and go susceptible to accusations of hindering development. If they let it, they suffer outer credibility. They chose the second since interior unit was greater.”

A multinational enforcement successful the vigor sector, who besides spoke anonymously, was much direct:

“Everyone knows Brazil is inactive going to drill for lipid for decades to come. The question is: volition we bash this portion we unreal we don’t, oregon volition we admit to it and effort to bash it successful the champion mode possible? The authorities chose the 2nd option, but the infinitesimal couldn’t beryllium worse.”

A repeating pattern: the Geneva fiasco

The clash successful Brasília was not an isolated case. Two months earlier, successful August, the negotiations for the International Plastic Treaty failed successful Geneva owed to disagreements betwixt countries advocating for limits connected planetary accumulation and oil-producing nations resisting immoderate restrictions.

The sermon of the 2nd radical prevailed, rendering immoderate woody unviable and repeating an already evident pattern: whenever planetary debates beforehand to code fossil fuels, whether done plastics oregon phasing out, lipid states signifier a coordinated resistance.

Brazil, which could person played the relation of mediator arsenic the aboriginal big of COP30, was accused by clime activists of aligning itself with lipid states, generating planetary disapproval astir the sincerity of Brazil's committedness to phasing out.

The void of strategical planning

The 2nd pillar, which could explicate this atrocious timing, lies successful the fragility of the Brazilian narrative.

When questioned astir however the state intends to, successful practice, swap lipid gross and warrant vigor information portion expanding connected renewable sources, the authorities has yet to contiguous a convincing program with intermediary goals and well-defined backing sources.

Away from the media, executives successful the vigor assemblage item that this vacuum created a governmental breach.

The government's logic would beryllium that since phasing retired has nary precise day oregon method, it is amended to warrant drilling portion it is inactive indispensable and profitable. The contented is that this stance collides head-on with the clime enactment sermon that the state wants to fulfill successful Belém.

“A brutal contradiction”, says Carlos Nobre

For the climatologist Carlos Nobre, the determination represents a brutal contradiction successful the Brazilian sermon connected the eve of Belém’s summit.

“Brazil is telling the satellite that it is imaginable to reconcile improvement with biology protection, but astatine the aforesaid clip allows substance exploration successful 1 of the astir delicate regions of the planet, lone a fewer kilometers from the biggest tropical rainforest successful the world. This is not conciliation, this is incoherence”, affirmed Nobre successful an interview.

The idiosyncratic warns that drilling successful the Equatorial Margin, adjacent if accumulation takes from 7 to 10 years to begin, already compromises the communicative successful Belém.

“COP30 should beryllium the infinitesimal successful which Brazil shows that it is imaginable to pb by example. But what illustration are we giving? That phasing retired is bare speech portion we drill holes astatine the bottommost of the sea?”

Nobre recognizes that nary modulation would beryllium immediate, but questions the request to unfastened up the caller lipid frontier precisely now.

“We person reserves, we person ongoing operations. Why indispensable we research a caller country of highly precocious biology risk, with almighty currents and ill-studied biodiversity, precisely erstwhile we should beryllium showing that we tin beryllium different?”

Ibama and Petrobras support that the existent task is substantially antithetic from the 1 denied successful 2023.

In a report, Ibama stated that the licence emanation occurred lone aft a rigorous biology licensing process, which began successful 2014, initially nether BP Energy and was taken implicit by Petrobras successful December 2020.

Proceedings progressive the elaboration by the Environmental Impact Study (EIA/RIMA), 3 nationalist audiences, and 65 method assemblage meetings of 20 municipalities from Pará and Amapá.

Inspections were besides carried retired connected each exigency effect structures and offshore drilling units, on with a Pre-Operational Assessment (APO) that mobilized much than 400 professionals from Petrobras and Ibama.

After the 2023 rejection, according to the biology agency, an aggravated treatment began with Petrobras, which allowed for important improvements to the project, particularly concerning the exigency effect structure.

Among the advances are the operation and cognition of a caller large-scale Rehabilitation and Oil Removal Center (CRD) successful Oiapoque (AP), which joins the existing 1 successful Belém (PA). Additionally, determination is the inclusion of 3 offshore vessels dedicated to assisting oiled wildlife and 4 nearshore vessels.

Ibama affirmed that the further demands were cardinal for the biology feasibility of the project, considering the exceptional ecological characteristics of the region. During the drilling activity, a caller simulation workout of exigency effect volition beryllium conducted, focused connected strategies for supporting fauna.

Petrobras, successful turn, expects fantabulous results from this research, which aims to beryllium the beingness of lipid successful the Brazilian information of this caller planetary vigor frontier, according to Madga Chambriard, seat of the state-affiliated company.

The Ministry of the Environment reinforced successful a study that licensing is Ibama’s ineligible responsibility, involving the appraisal of the method feasibility of projects.

The ministry made wide that it is not up to the licensing organ to analyse aspects of accidental and convenience successful exploring oil; this determination is the work of the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE).

As Minister Marina Silva has reiterated implicit the past 2 years, whenever she is asked to remark connected licensing processes that arouse the morganatic involvement of civilian society, indigenous peoples, quilombolas, accepted communities, the technological community, investors, and antithetic sectors of the government, it is legally incumbent upon Ibama to measure the method feasibility of the task successful question," the ministry said successful a statement.

The MMA reaffirmed that immoderate process involving high-risk areas, specified arsenic the Amazon River mouth, indispensable comply with the astir rigorous technical, scientific, and biology criteria, ensuring respect for the environment, the peoples and communities of the region, and its socio-environmental riches.

Persistent Contradictions

Despite authoritative assurances, Ibama technicians maintained their proposal to contradict the licence until February. An sentiment signed by 29 experts from the agency, seen by AFP, highlighted the hazard of “massive nonaccomplishment of biodiversity successful a highly delicate marine ecosystem.”

In September, adjacent though Petrobras was incapable to reliably show its quality to incorporate leaks, the pre-operational biology appraisal was approved.

In 2011, Petrobras attempted to drill successful a portion adjacent to the 1 for which it has present received a license. There was an incidental with the rig caused by beardown oversea currents successful that region—a informing astir the challenging conditions successful the country that stay today.

Backlash from biology organizations was immediate. The Climate Observatory has announced that it volition spell to the courts unneurotic with six different civilian nine entities to question the method and judicial aspects of the licensing.

“This support sabotages COP and goes against the relation of clime person claimed by the president connected the planetary stage”, declared the Climate Observatory. “This determination is disastrous from an environmental, climatic, and biodiversity perspective.”

Marcio Astrini, enforcement manager of the organization, was much incisive successful questioning the timing: “Why now? I deliberation it's a benignant of sabotage. COP is suffering from a bid of opposing pressures wrong the government. The authorities is reticent astir the docket successful general.”

The governmental unit connected the process was explicit. Lula adjacent said publically astatine the opening of the twelvemonth that Ibama was acting “as if it were against the government.”

Political interference successful the licensing process, officially denied, became explicit successful May erstwhile Rodrigo Agostinho, president of Ibama, overturned contrary method opinions and authorized the spill effect test—considered the past measurement earlier granting the license.

What is astatine involvement successful Belém

The declaration for the drill rig to beryllium utilized by Petrobras was owed to expire this week, and the instrumentality was to beryllium returned. With the licence granted connected Monday, the state-owned institution volition renew the declaration and instantly statesman drilling, which is expected to past 5 months.

The anticipation is to cognize if determination is lipid successful the good by March. Even if determination is simply a discovery, accumulation would instrumentality betwixt 7 and 10 years to begin, according to Magda Chambriard, president of Petrobras.

But the governmental harm is immediate. COP30, which could correspond Brazil's consecration arsenic a clime power, arrives successful Belém nether the shadiness of a determination that exposes the contradictions of the Brazilian biology task — and determination are galore much challenges successful different spheres and agendas.

Faced with these contradictions aft the pre-COP successful Brasília, Minister Marina Silva acknowledged:

“These large contradictions are not posed lone successful Brazil, but successful the full world. Indeed, we inactive person limits connected renewable sources to fulfill each vigor demand, supra each successful economical sectors, but this indispensable beryllium overcome.”

The question is whether it volition beryllium imaginable to flooded these contradictions portion drilling successful the Equatorial Margin. Furthermore, volition it beryllium imaginable to pb a planetary clime league portion carrying this ambiguity?

The pursuing 20 days volition find whether Brazil tin alteration the sermon of “just transition” into thing credible, oregon if the archetypal COP successful the Amazon volition beryllium remembered not for clime advances, but for the dissonance betwixt rhetoric and reality.

The lipid that whitethorn prevarication astatine the bottommost of the equatorial oversea has already begun to leak, not arsenic oil, but arsenic uncertainty astir the seriousness of Brazilian clime leadership.