Brazilian soy production set to break records in 2025/26

Brazilian soy accumulation successful the 2025/26 harvest is expected to surpass records acceptable successful the 2024/25 season. The anticipation is for the state to nutrient 177.6 cardinal tons, an summation of 3.5% successful narration to the erstwhile cycle, arsenic estimated by the archetypal survey of the National Supply Company (Conab). In total, Brazilian atom accumulation is expected to summation by 0.8% to 354.7 cardinal tons.

In astir analyses, the renewal of the grounds is not questioned. Doubts, however, hover astir profits. According to a study by Datagro cultivation consultancy, producers should summation their planted country by 2%, boosted by soy’s baseline profitability, which refers to the magnitude they should gain from income earlier accounting for fixed expenses.

Even with a 28% recoil from the erstwhile rhythm to 17% this harvest, profitability should enactment affirmative successful narration to different crops – and adjacent amended successful immoderate regions.

This means that for each 100 reais earned from the oilseed, the husbandman should gain 17 reais of nett profit, taking into relationship the basal terms of Rondonópolis (MS), the modular mean for the country.

“The shaper evaluates if it is worthy investing successful a definite crop. While it is, which means that it is not adjacent to oregon adjacent to zero, helium volition opt to works soy alternatively of maize oregon cotton. There are incentives to summation plantation area”, affirms the consultancy.

According to Datagro, bluish Rio Grande bash Sul, for instance, is expected to summation its profitability from -7% successful the past harvest to 25% this season. In confederate Mato Grosso bash Sul, the anticipation is for maturation to summation from 13% to 21%.

“In the different states, specified arsenic Goiás, Mato Grosso and Paraná, the forecast is for a flimsy drop, but inactive successful levels supra the humanities mean – which allows immoderate outgo dilution per hectare”, according to the consultancy.

The confirmation of La Niña by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), however, tin compromise these numbers.

In this climatic event, the somesthesia of the tropical Pacific Ocean drops beneath average, resulting successful effects specified arsenic accrued rainfall successful Asia and drier conditions successful immoderate regions of South America. In this case, eyes are turned – again – to Rio Grande bash Sul, 1 of the starring soy producers successful Brazil.

“Models already indicated a script of humidity shortage successful the South, which tin make periods of draught. But the consequences of these phenomena are ever taxable to flimsy variations” says Willians Bini, meteorologist and caput of New Businesses for Metos Brasil, which offers monitoring solutions for agribusiness.