CFOs in Brazil see improvement in the business environment, but remain cautious

Optimism has returned to the forefront among Brazilian fiscal directors—albeit cautiously. The CFO Confidence Index (iCFO) reached 126.9 points successful the 3rd 4th of 2025, a flimsy summation from the 125.7 points successful the erstwhile period, but inactive beneath the levels of 2024, erstwhile it consistently remained supra 127 points.

The index, created by the Brazilian Institute of Finance Executives (IBEF-SP) successful concern with Exame Saint Paul, reflects a Brazil that inspires much assurance successful the abbreviated term, but inactive faces well-known headwinds. Weak home request (19.4%), precocious involvement rates (15.1%), and the governmental situation (9.4%) are the 3 biggest concerns among respondents.

The IBEF-SP indicator has 3 components: 1 focused connected the macroeconomy, different related to the sectors successful which CFOs operate, and a 3rd concerning the companies themselves.

The latest speechmaking suggests that, [highlight]while executives are much assured successful the capableness of their ain businesses and sectors, the macroeconomic situation is inactive not showing wide signs of improvement[/highlight]—a reflection of an expected mean Selic complaint of 14.3% and a projected dollar speech complaint of R$ 5.51. The anticipation for 2025 GDP maturation is 2.1%, based connected the mean of the collected projections.

In the 4th ending successful September, the item was the sectoral component, which roseate 3.5 points to 128.6. The scale for companies (iCFOe) besides accrued marginally to 132.5, portion the macroeconomic scale (iCFOm) remained unchangeable astatine 119.8.

Technology Dominates Investment Plans – but No M&As

Even with caution, concern plans stay firm. Three retired of 10 CFOs program to put successful accusation exertion (IT) implicit the adjacent 12 months—a inclination that has been accordant since the opening of the humanities bid successful 2016. In 2nd spot are investments successful expanding installed capacity, mentioned by 25.5% of the executives.

Among those readying to put successful IT, 47% said they volition allocate little than fractional of the fund to artificial quality and Big Data solutions. In comparison, 19% said they don’t foresee immoderate concern successful these areas. Only one-third of respondents program to allocate 50% oregon much of the exertion fund to AI and data.

The survey besides revealed a concerning fact: 83% of CFOs bash not program to put successful acquiring startups oregon innovation hubs successful the coming months. This contrasts with the communicative of integer translation and sustainable maturation that dominates the firm situation and suggests a intermission successful bets connected much disruptive innovation—possibly owed to the precocious outgo of capital.

On the employment side, the signals are much encouraging: 41% of CFOs expect to summation their workforce and the fig of outsourced employees by mid-2026, compared to 28% successful the third-quarter 2024 survey.

On the different hand, the stock of those readying to trim teams besides grew, from 18% to 21%, indicating a polarization betwixt companies successful enlargement and others inactive adjusting costs.

The iCFO people range, collected quarterly since 2016, goes from 20 to 180, with 100 points representing the neutral level of CFO expectations for the adjacent 12 months.

The little bounds of the scale scale, 20 points, indicates the highest level of pessimism. In contrast, the precocious limit, 180 points, indicates the highest level of optimism regarding CFO expectations for the adjacent 12 months.