Failed U.S. Military Effort in Africa is on the Chopping Block

The U.S. attack on Venezuela and abduction of its president Nicolás Maduro was proof that after months of threats, the Trump administration’s talk of hemispheric hegemony isn’t just bluster. The administration is clearly reorienting the U.S. military toward power projection in the Western Hemisphere, as it plots a reorganization that would make it easier to launch strikes across the Americas.

President Donald Trump has touted the “Donroe Doctrine” — a bastardization of the 1823 Monroe Doctrine. Whereas President James Monroe’s policy sought to prevent Europe from colonizing and meddling in the Western Hemisphere, Trump views his as license for America to do exactly that. The new U.S. National Security Strategy, released last month, decrees the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine a “potent restoration of American power and priorities,” rooted in the “readjustment of our global military presence to address urgent threats in our Hemisphere … and away from theaters whose relative import to American national security has declined in recent decades or years.”

With this reshuffling of American military priorities in mind, senior War Department officials have developed a plan to downgrade several of the U.S. military’s major overseas combatant commands and curtail the power of their commanders. The revised Unified Command Plan would shrink the number of geographic combatant commands, combining Northern and Southern Commands into a single American Command, or AMERICOM, and would merge the European, Central, and African Commands into a single International Command, according to three government sources. Indo-Pacific Command would remain a standalone command. (The proposed reorganization was first reported by the Washington Post.)

One of the government officials said that the new plan would “streamline” U.S. military efforts abroad while “reorienting” U.S. combat power to bring it into line with the new National Security Strategy, which makes clear that the U.S. will be “avoiding any long-term American presence or commitments” in Africa and “avoiding the ‘forever wars’ that bogged us down in” in the Middle East.

After 9/11, as the U.S. fought brutal and costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, it also ramped up military efforts across the African continent. The number of troops, programs, operations, exercises, bases, low-profile Special Operations missions, deployments of commandos, drone strikes, proxy wars, and almost every other military activity in Africa jumped exponentially. At the same time, terrorism took firmer root and spread across the continent, with fatalities caused by terror groups jumping nearly 100,000 percent over two decades, according to the Pentagon.

In the wake of this abject failure, experts told The Intercept that reconfiguring America’s military posture and swapping interventions in Africa for those in the Western Hemisphere is likely to result in the same types of setbacks, stalemates, and failures due to what Erik Sperling, the executive director of Just Foreign Policy, termed “Washington’s persistent disinterest in understanding the societies it purports to protect and its reliance on a one-size-fits-all, militarized approach.”

The U.S. military has a dismal record in Africa.

The Intercept has been chronicling its futile counterterrorism efforts on the African continent for the last decade, including increases in the number and reach of terror groups, rising militant attacks, spikes in fatalities, destabilizing blowback from U.S. operations, humanitarian disasters, failed secret wars, coups by U.S. trainees, human rights abuses by allies, massacres and executions of civilians by partner forces, civilians killed in drone strikes, and a litany of other fiascos and failures.

Throughout all of Africa, the State Department counted 23 deaths from terrorist violence in 2002 and 2003, as U.S. counterterrorism efforts began to ramp up on the continent. By 2010, two years after AFRICOM began operations, fatalities from attacks by militant Islamists had already spiked to 2,674, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, a Pentagon research institution. The situation only continued to deteriorate. Last year, there were 22,307 fatalities from militant Islamist violence in Africa. This represents an almost 97,000 percent increase since the early 2000s, with the areas of greatest U.S. involvement — Somalia and the West African Sahel — suffering the worst outcomes.

“Africa has experienced roughly 155,000 militant Islamist group-linked deaths over the past decade,” reads a report issued in July by the Africa Center. “Somalia and the Sahel have now experienced more militant Islamist-related fatalities over the past decade (each over 49,000) than any other region.”

A separate Africa Center report found that the “Sahel has held the designation of the most lethal theater of militant Islamist violence in Africa for 4 years in a row,” accounting for an estimated 67 percent of all noncombatants killed by militant Islamist groups in Africa. The report also found that “security has deteriorated under each of the military juntas that seized power in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.” Left unsaid was at least 15 officers who benefited from U.S. security assistance were key leaders in a dozen coups in West Africa and the greater Sahel, including Burkina Faso (in 2014, 2015, and twice in 2022), Mali (in 2012, 2020, and 2021), and Niger (in 2023), according to a series of reports by The Intercept.

“In West Africa, the U.S. ‘war on terror’ model — and the military training, funding, and equipment for foreign forces that went with it — only intensified the spiral of violence in the region,” said Stephanie Savell, the director of Brown University’s Costs of War Project who has conducted extensive research on U.S. counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel. “Amidst all the complexities, one thing is resoundingly clear: A war paradigm does not provide an effective solution to the problem of terror attacks. It leads to blowback and fails to address any of the root causes, including poverty. And it has a tremendous human and financial toll.”

The Africa Center report also found that the “expansion of militant Islamist violence in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger has resulted in an increased number of attacks along and beyond the borders of coastal West African countries, from Mauritania to Nigeria.” The possible role of U.S. counterterrorism failures was also ignored by Trump when he announced Christmas Day airstrikes in Nigeria by Africa Command against those he called “ISIS Terrorist Scum in Northwest Nigeria, who have been targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians, at levels not seen for many years, and even Centuries!”

AFRICOM claimed to have struck targets in “Soboto state,” an apparent reference to Sokoto state, on December 25. The Africa Center report noted that “militant Islamist cells” have moved into Sokoto state in recent years and that the “emergence of violent extremist groups in northwest Nigeria implies the long-feared convergence of militant Islamist groups with organized criminal networks.”

AFRICOM did not respond to questions about how it could be sure who it attacked when it was unclear about where it attacked.

On the east side of the continent, the U.S. military has been at war in Somalia for almost a quarter-century. U.S. forces began conducting airstrikes against militants in Somalia in 2007. That same year, the Pentagon recognized that there were fundamental flaws with U.S. military operations in the Horn of Africa, and Somalia became another post-9/11 stalemate, which AFRICOM inherited the next year.

U.S. airstrikes in Somalia have skyrocketed when Trump is in office. From 2007 to 2017, under the administrations of George W. Bush and Barack Obama, the U.S. military carried out 43 declared airstrikes in Somalia. During Trump’s first term, AFRICOM conducted more than 200 air attacks against members of al-Shabab and the Islamic State.

Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. military conducted 39 declared strikes in Somalia over four years. The U.S. conducted more than 125 airstrikes in Somalia in 2025, according to the New America Foundation. (This includes an attack in Somalia that one top U.S. commander called the “largest airstrike in the history of the world.”) Previously, the highest number of strikes in the command’s history was 63, under Trump in 2019.

The massive number of airstrikes under Trump during his first term and the record number this year have not translated into success in America’s longest African forever war. The metrics are, in fact, more dismal than ever. A December Africa Center report found that Somalia had the second-highest number of fatalities linked to militant Islamist violence, accounting for 28 percent of the continental total. The 6,224 fatalities linked to al-Shabab over the past year are double that of 2022. In fact, an al-Shabab offensive this year saw militants push within 32 miles of the capital, Mogadishu.

Earlier this year, during his farewell tour, then-AFRICOM chief Gen. Michael Langley, implored African ministers and heads of state to help save his embattled command. That effort appears to have foundered.

In the wake of the Christmas attacks in Nigeria, AFRICOM’s current chief, Gen. Dagvin Anderson, said the command’s “goal is to protect Americans and to disrupt violent extremist organizations wherever they are.” AFRICOM did not respond to questions about how attacks in northwest Nigeria protect Americans.

When asked for additional information on plans to subordinate AFRICOM to a new command and how Trump’s new war in Nigeria might affect the command, a Department of War spokesperson replied: “We have nothing to offer on either of your questions.”

Condensing the geographic combatant commands will reduce the number of four-star generals and admirals who report directly to War Secretary Pete Hegseth, one of his major efforts to remake the military. AFRICOM and the other targeted commands are expected to see their funding and resources slashed, but lawmakers have required the Pentagon to submit detailed plans on the reorganization as well as its potential impacts.

The Pentagon refused to comment on the reorganization plans or how they will affect AFRICOM and other targeted geographic combatant commands. “As a matter of Department of War policy, we will not comment on leaked documents that we cannot authenticate and rumored internal discussions, as well as specifics of architectural discussion or pre-decisional matters,” a War Department official told The Intercept.

With the U.S. threatening to subject Venezuela to additional attacks, conduct regime change in Colombia, carry out military strikes in Mexico, and invade Greenland, it’s clear that the Western Hemisphere is now America’s preeminent military priority. But experts say U.S. military efforts in Africa offer a clear warning. “The experience in West Africa holds an essential lesson for U.S. actions in the Western Hemisphere — waging war against so-called ‘narco-terrorists’ will cost many human lives and taxpayer dollars, with no strategic benefit,” Savell told The Intercept.

Sperling, of Just Foreign Policy, echoed similar sentiments. “It’s clear that U.S. counterterrorism policy in Africa has been a failure at best and counterproductive at worst, often exacerbating the very extremism it claims to combat,” he told The Intercept. “As the U.S. increasingly turns its attention to the Western Hemisphere, it is likely to reproduce the same outcomes for the same reasons. U.S. policy on both continents will continue to fail in the medium to long-term unless policymakers learn to engage with other nations with genuine respect and as equals, rather than as problems to be managed by force.”